Publications based on FeliX

The initial version of FeliX was presented by Obersteiner et al. (2012) and Rydzak et al. (2013), providing a conceptual description of the dynamic interactions and feedback loops of the model, along with mathematical formulations for all model variables. Based on the FeliX model, researchers have conducted scenario analyses on different global socio-economic and environmental problems. Thereafter, two main research directions, climate change mitigation and sustainable development, have been explored using FeliX.

Climate change mitigation. This direction aims to narrate emission pathways based on different mitigation measures. Walsh et al. (2015) narrated emissions pathways if microalgae was used as a feedstock for livestock and found that 1) up to 2 billion hectares of land currently used for pasture and feed crops could be freed, and 2) global atmospheric carbon concentrations could be reduced close to preindustrial levels using different climate mitigation measures. Walsh et al. (2017) projected energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100 and found that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak before 2025 to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Thereafter, the model was extended to FeliX 2.0, focusing on population dynamics, education levels, food and land use systems including explicit fertilizer use and behavior-driven diet shifts, and socioeconomic settings for global poverty elimination.

Sustainable development. This direction explores how FeliX 2.0 can be employed in assessing the progresses of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Eker et al. (2019) extended the land use, food production and fertilizer modules of the model, and linked it to a behavioural diet shift model to explore the main drivers of global diet change and its implications for the food system. Eker et al. (2019) showed that the social norm effect (for instance, the extent of vegetarianism in the population that accelerates a further switch to a vegetarian diet) and self-efficacy are the main drivers of widespread dietary changes. Moallemi et al. (2022b) implemented the global change scenarios in FeliX to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural complexity on the projection of sustainable development under these scenarios. Furthermore, Moallemi et al. (2022a) explored the drivers of progress of global Sustainable Development Goals and found that early planning for systems change into more sustainable pathways was important for accelerating the progress toward increasingly ambitious sustainable targets. Liu et al. (2023a) assessed the effectiveness of different socioeconomic settings in eliminating poverty and quantified their impacts on the Earth system by 2050. More recently, an indicator for measuring human wellbeing, the global years of good life (YoGL) indicator, was estimated using FeliX and found to increase by on average about twice the rate by 2100 (Kuhn et al., 2023). The model has been used in further applications to explore sustainable development pathways (Ruan et al., 2023), poverty alleviation strategies (Liu et al., 2023b), and food system transformation (Yang et al., 2023).

In summary, FeliX has facilitated vital research on global system dynamics, sustainability, and human well-being, and is poised for continued advancement for enhanced insights into key responses in human-earth systems.

References

• Eker, S., Reese, G., Obersteiner, M., 2019. Modelling the drivers of a widespread shift to sustainable diets. Nature Sustainability 2, 725–735.
• Kuhn M, Eker S, Reiter C, & Liu Q. (2023). “Global systems analysis for understanding the drivers of sustainable wellbeing”. In Lutz W & Pachauri S (Eds.), Systems Analysis for Sustainable Wellbeing. 50 years of IIASA research, 40 years after the Brundtland Commission, contributing to the post-2030 Global Agenda (pp. 61-76). IIASA.
• Liu, Q., Gao, L., Guo, Z., Dong, Y., Moallemi, E.A., Eker, S., Yang, J., Obersteiner, M., Bryan, B.A., 2023a. Robust strategies to end global poverty and reduce environmental pressures. One Earth 6, 392–408.
• Liu, Q., Yang, J., Gao, L., Dong, Y., Guo, Z., Moallemi, E.A., Eker, S., Obersteiner, M., 2023b. Robust sensitivity analysis to uncertainties in environmental and socioeconomic scenarios: a perspective from a global socio-ecological system model. J. Clean. Prod. 410, 137244.
• Moallemi, E.A., Eker, S., Gao, L., Hadjikakou, M., Liu, Q., Kwakkel, J., Reed, P.M., Obersteiner, M., Guo, Z., Bryan, B.A., 2022a. Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda. One Earth 5, 792–811.
• Moallemi, E.A., Gao, L., Eker, S., Bryan, B.A., 2022b. Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways. Global Sustainability, 5, e7.
• Obersteiner, M., Rydzak, F., Fritz, S., McCallum, I., 2012. Valuing the potential impacts of GEOSS: a systems dynamics approach. In: Laxminarayan, R., Macauley, M.K. (Eds.), The Value of Information. Springer, Netherlands, Dordrecht, pp. 67–90. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-4839-2_4.
• Ruan, W., Guo, Z., Yang, J., Gao, L., Dong, Y., Liu, Q., 2023. Assessing the progress toward achieving energy- and climate-related sustainable development goals under four global energy transition outlooks. Sustain. Dev. 2873.
• Rydzak, F., Obersteiner, M., Kraxner, F., Fritz, S., McCallum, I., 2013. FeliX3–Impact Assessment Model: Systemic View across Societal Benefit Areas beyond Global Earth Observation. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg.
• Walsh, B., Ciais, P., Janssens, I.A., Peñuelas, J., Riahi, K., Rydzak, F., Van Vuuren, D.P., Obersteiner, M., 2017. Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks. Nature Communications 8, 14856.
• Walsh, B.J., Rydzak, F., Palazzo, A., Kraxner, F., Herrero, M., Schenk, P.M., Ciais, P., Janssens, I.A., Peñuelas, J., Niederl-Schmidinger, A., Obersteiner, M., 2015. New feed sources key to ambitious climate targets. Carbon Balance Management 10, 26.
• Yang, J., Gao, L., Liu, Q., Guo, Z., 2023. Assessing environmental impacts of response strategies for sustainable food system transformation. Sustainable Development 2795.